December-born footballers are least likely to turn pro - Relative Age Effect

Several studies have confirmed that December-born footballers are least likely to turn professional due to the relative age effect. Let's explain why it is so.

Footballers born in December are least likely to turn pro. Yes, you heard it right.

Here you can see the birth distribution by month across 27 European nations from 2000 to 2010. And here's the birth distribution of over 4000 players that participated in the UEFA youth tournaments in 2010-11.

Interestingly, most of them were born in January. And it just drops month by month until December — where the numbers are shockingly low. But this isn’t random. It’s called the relative age effect.

In football, kids born in January and December often compete in the same age group — even though they could be almost a year apart! And at younger ages, a few months can mean huge differences in size, strength, and maturity. So, players born earlier in the year have a built-in advantage... while late-born talent often gets overlooked.

It's strange that we are still following this old flawed system. FIFA and national federations need to address this immediately, as we could be missing out on some serious ballers.


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